Path: uflorida!simulation From: simulation@uflorida.cis.ufl.edu (Moderator: Paul Fishwick) Subject: SIMULATION DIGEST V31 N2 Newsgroups: comp.simulation Reply-To: simulation@uflorida.cis.ufl.edu Sender: fishwick@uflorida.cis.ufl.edu Approved: fishwick@uflorida.cis.ufl.edu Distribution: world Volume: 31, Issue: 2, Fri Jan 29 16:43:10 EST 1993 +----------------+ | TODAY'S TOPICS | +----------------+ [GENERAL INFORMATION] Mission Earth [NEW QUESTIONS] Manufacturing System Simulation Tools and Metrics Air Pollution Models Electrical and Acoustic Response GRASP Animation HSPICE Format [CALL FOR PAPERS/PARTICIPATION] AISB '93: Simulation of Behavior Computer Aided Design Petri Nets and Performance Models AI Symposium [DEPARTMENTS] Simulation in the Service of Society * Moderator: Paul Fishwick, Univ. of Florida * Send topical mail to: simulation@bikini.cis.ufl.edu OR post to comp.simulation via USENET * Gopher link available to gopher.cis.ufl.edu * Archives available via FTP to bikini.cis.ufl.edu (128.227.224.1). Login as 'anonymous', use your e-mail address as the password, change directory to pub/simdigest. Do 'binary' before any file transfers. * Simulation Tools available by doing above and changing the directory to pub/simdigest/tools. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subject: [GENERAL INFORMATION] ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 28 Jan 93 22:57:22 GMT From: mcleod@Sdsc.Edu Subject: GENI To: fishwick@fish.cis.ufl.edu Cc: ben@whitebase.ukp.com With respect to MISSION EARTH I believe we now have something that we can "get our teeth into". You may recall that Buckminster Fuller advocated a worldwide "electrical power grid" for load-sharing between daylight/darkness, North/South, and resource-rich/poor areas of the globe. As usual he was ahead of his time. But now the needed technology has caught up, as exemplified by the highly successful high-voltage direct-current link from the Washington State hydro plants to the power-hungry Los Angeles area. It has paid off handsomely to both participants. For years now Peter Meisen has latched onto the concept and run with it. His project is called GENI. I have known of his efforts, had him speak on the subject at an SCS conference, and written about it briefly in "Simulation in the Service of Society." But at that time the project had not reached the point where building a model was appropriate. Now it has. Plans have jelled, simulations to support feasibility studies are needed, and funds to support development of a model are being sought. It is my opinion that it should not be necessary to start model development from scratch. It is unfortunate that the SCS MISSION EARTH activity to inventory and describe existing models is just getting under way, because we might already have discovered a model, the "shell" of which could be used with data pertinent to the study of a global electric power grid. The purpose of this message is to solicit ideas that might be helpful in our quest for applicable information concerning existing models -- or suggestions as to where to go from here. John McLeod P.S. An indication of interest in GENI, and/or MISSION EARTH will get you more details. John McLeod 8484 La Jolla Shores Dr. La Jolla, CA 92037, USA "mcleod@sdsc.bitnet" ------------------------------ Subject: [NEW QUESTIONS] ------------------------------ Newsgroups: comp.simulation Path: gorman From: gorman@acsu.buffalo.edu (Anne-Marie K. Gorman) Subject: Interactive manufacturing simulation Sender: nntp@acsu.buffalo.edu Date: Thu, 21 Jan 1993 17:20:56 GMT Hello, I am new to this newsgroup and hope someone can help me. I am looking for software that will allow me to write a simulation of a discrete manufacturing system (e.g. job shop, flexible manufacturing cell) that has an interactive user interface and automatic data pickup of user actions. As the simulation runs, the graphical display of system status would be updated dynamically, but the user could interrupt at any time, for instance to reassign a part to a different machine, or to reprioritize parts in a queue. Direct manipulation input is a must. The simulation would also automatically record all the user's actions along with system events, and the times of each. I have looked at SIMAN + CINEMA, but it doesn't allow interaction or data pickup. Also, at least in the PC version we have here, it can't handle a very complicated simulation. I've also looked at LabView, but its point-and-drag input is limited to slides, and I need more free- form capabilities. Maybe some sort of rapid-prototyping package is what I need? I couldn't find a newsgroup about rapid prototyping. Thanks for any help you can give me. As you've no doubt guessed, this is for a PhD dissertation. Anne-Marie -- =============================================================================== Anne-Marie K. Gorman Sophie and Teresa are over a year old already! Human factors/ergonomics Time flies twice as fast when you're having University at Buffalo twice as much fun. ------------------------------ From: "nelis w.j.m." Subject: tools and metrics for simulator development? To: simulation@bikini.cis.ufl.edu Date: Fri, 22 Jan 93 11:32:26 MET Hi, we are about to perform a rather large simulation project. The object to be simulated is a terrestial datacommunications network. The outputs of the simulation are performance estimates. We are considering the use of OPNET. For this project we are facing two questions: 1- which tools can be used to develop/design a simulator, and to manage multiple versions? 2- which metrics can be used to estimate the size of the simulator and the time needed to develop it? Are there any books or articles on these subjects? Thanks in advance, W.J.M. Nelis (Informatics Division, Datacommunications group, IR-NOP) National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR) Email: nelis@nlr.nl ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 23 Jan 1993 16:30:18 UTC+0100 From: Roberto San Jose Subject: Information To: simulation-request@ufl.edu (confirm) Content-Identifier: 141 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT I would like to receive information related to simulation of air pollution models and in general terms, information related to atmospheric science models. I would appreciate if you can include my e-mail address in the corresponding list. Thank you very much, Dr. Roberto San Jose ------------------------------ From: cain@geomag.gly.fsu.edu (Joe Cain) Subject: input needed Followup-To: sci.geo.geology Sender: kalata@atcf.ncsc.navy.mil Nntp-Posting-Host: geomag.gly.fsu.edu Organization: Florida State University Geology Dept. Distribution: usa Date: Wed, 27 Jan 93 18:22:36 GMT Apparently-To: comp-simulation@uflorida.cis.ufl.edu Content-Length: 634 Anyone having experience with computer modeling or simulation of an electromagnetic geophone's response to accoustic and/or seismic energy in water please contact Jody Kalata at: kalata@atcf.ncsc.navy.mil ----------------------------------------------------------- Joseph Cain cain@geomag.gly.fsu.edu cain@fsu.bitnet scri::cain (904) 644-4014 FAX (904) 644-4214 or -0098 ------------------------------ Newsgroups: comp.simulation From: gfo@dmu.ac.uk (Gary Fozzard) Subject: Information on GRASP Followup-To: gfo@dmu.ac.uk Summary: Book titles, reading list required for lecturer Sender: gfo@dmu.ac.uk Organization: De Montfort University, Leicester, UK. Distribution: comp.simulation Date: Thu, 28 Jan 1993 10:02:05 GMT Apparently-To: comp-simulation@uknet.ac.uk Content-Length: 946 X-Lines: 28 Hello, I am a lecturer putting together a short series on simulation. My own area of work is now largely CAD although I have done a large amount of discrete event simulation using SIMAN. I would like to talk about simulation for robotics design etc. and the GRASP package would seam to be an ideal starting point. I also have a video sequence of a GRASP animation. Can anyone suggest the best material on this subject. Kind Regards +--------------------------------------------------------------------+ + Dr Gary Post: CIMTEX, De Montfort University Leicester, + + Fozzard The Gateway, LEICESTER LE1 9BH, UK. + + CAD Phone: +44 533 577586 (direct dial) + + Cell Email: gfo@uk.ac.dmu (JANET) + + Coordinator gfo@dmu.ac.uk (International) + +--------------------------------------------------------------------+ ------------------------------ Newsgroups: comp.software-eng,comp.simulation Path: dennis From: dennis@mr2.ece.cmu.edu (Dennis J. Ciplickas) Subject: Need HSPICE binary data format Sender: news@fs7.ece.cmu.edu (USENET News System) Organization: Carnegie Mellon University Distribution: usa Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1993 16:11:41 GMT Apparently-To: comp-simulation@cis.ohio-state.edu Content-Length: 411 X-Lines: 13 I am looking for a document describing the internal format of the HSPICE 9007d binary .st0, .ac0, and .tr0 files. I routinely import large amounts of HSPICE data into matlab and am interested in writing a .tr0 to .mat binary conversion program to avoid wasting time going thru ASCII conversion if I do not have to. Do you where I can get such a document? E-mail please. Thanks, Dennis - dennis@ece.cmu.edu ------------------------------ Subject: [CALL FOR PAPERS/PARTICIPATION] ------------------------------ From: ais-prog@cs.bham.ac.uk (Aisb93 Prog) Subject: AISB'93 Conference Programme and Registration Date: 26 Jan 93 12:50:25 GMT Sender: news@cs.bham.ac.uk Reply-To: P.M.Hickey@cs.bham.ac.uk Organization: School of Computer Science, Birmingham Univ. UK Nntp-Posting-Host: flopsy ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ CONFERENCE PROGRAMME and REGISTRATION INFORMATION A I S B' 9 3 'P R O S P E C T S F O R A R T I F I C I A L I N T E L L I G E N C E' Cognitive Science Research Centre The University of Birmingham March 29th -- April 2nd 1993 ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ MESSAGE FROM THE PROGRAMME CHAIR The biennial conferences of the Society for the Study of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation of Behaviour are traditionally "single-track" scientific meetings aiming to bring together all areas of research in AI and computational cognitive science, and AISB'93 is no exception. With the end of the century close at hand, it seemed appropriate to choose a forward looking theme, so the five invited speakers, all distinguished researchers in their own sub-fields, have been asked to identify trends and project into the future, instead of simply surveying past achievements. Some but not all of the submitted papers also analyse prospects; the others report on work already done. The referees and the selection committee used as a major criterion for selection the requirement that papers should be of interest to a general AI audience. All of the papers have in common a commitment to a "design-based" approach to the study of intelligence, though some of them focus mainly on requirements, some mainly on designs and some on actual implementations, and of course there is wide variation not only regarding the sub-domains of AI (such as vision, learning, language, emotions) but also between the techniques used (such as symbolic reasoning, neural net models, genetic algorithms), and also between those who attempt to design intelligent agents using a top down analysis of human-like intelligence and those who work bottom up from primitive insect-like mechanisms. There is also international variety, with papers from several European countries and further afield. This variety of topics and approaches promises to make the conference particularly lively, with plenty of scope for controversy. We have therefore decided to allow a little more time than usual for each item in the programme, so that questions and discussions can add to the interest. There will also be poster presentations, where some work that could not be included in the formal proceedings can be presented, and it is expected that there will be book displays by major AI publishers and possibly some displays and demonstrations by vendors of AI software and systems. The conference will be preceded by a programme of seven tutorials and workshops for which separate registration is available. Integral Solutions Limited have agreed to present a prize of AI software, including Poplog, and a place on one of their training courses, for the paper voted "best presented" by the audience. For those involved in AI and Cognitive Science, the conference is a primary opportunity to meet, discuss and learn about current work. For those new to these fields, the conference is a chance to become acquainted with them in pleasant surroundings and to meet the people involved. For full-time students, large reductions in registration fees are offered. The location of the conference is one of the attractive halls of residence in a pleasant lakeside setting at one end of the campus of the University of Birmingham. This is not very far from the city centre, so a visit to one of the local attractions of the centre, such as the renowned Symphony Hall, will require a journey of only a few minutes by taxi or train. Single room accommodation has been booked, and the auditorium is in the same building as the bedrooms and dining room, so that the conference will provide excellent opportunities for informal mixing and discussions. The number of rooms available is limited, so early booking is recommended. We look forward to seeing you and hope you enjoy the conference. Aaron Sloman. ORGANISATION Programme Chair: Aaron Sloman (University of Birmingham) Programme Committee: David Hogg (University of Leeds) Glyn Humphreys (University of Birmingham) Allan Ramsay (University College Dublin) Derek Partridge (University of Exeter) Local Organiser: Donald Peterson (University of Birmingham) Administration: Petra Hickey (University of Birmingham) ________________________________________________________________________ GENERAL INFORMATION ________________________________________________________________________ TIME The AISB'93 Conference will take place from Monday 29th March to Friday 2nd April 1993. The Tutorials and Workshops run on Monday 29th and Tuesday 30th March. The main Technical Programme begins after lunch on Tuesday 30th March and ends before lunch on Friday 2nd April. VENUE The venue for registration and all conference events is: Lake Hall, The Vale, Church Road, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 3SX. Tel. +44-(0)21-454-0678 TRANSPORT Lake Hall is two and a half miles from Birmingham's city centre, and is easily reached from New Street Station, and from Birmingham International Airport. Full travel details will be sent on registration. LANGUAGE The official language of the conference is English. ACCOMMODATION Single room accommodation has been reserved for conference delegates in Lake Hall. Delegates preferring to stay at a hotel must book their own accommodation, though names of nearby hotels are available on request. CAMPUS FACILITIES The University Campus nearby contains branches of Lloyds and Barclays banks, Dillons University Bookshop, Stanford and Man Stationers, a men's hairdresser, and the Barber Institute of Fine Arts. PARKING There is ample free parking in the vicinity of Lake Hall. ________________________________________________________________________ TECHNICAL PROGRAMME (The order is provisional. Invited talks are asterisked) ________________________________________________________________________ MONDAY MARCH 29TH Workshops and Tutorials (see below) TUESDAY MARCH 30TH (Morning) Workshops and Tutorials (see below) TUESDAY MARCH 30TH (Afternoon) 14.00 Introduction 14.15 * Kurt Van Lehn (Pittsburg) --- Prospects for modelling human learning (e.g. college physics) 15.30 Husbands, Harvey, Cliff --- An evolutionary approach to AI 16.00 TEA & COFFEE 16.30 Edmund Furse --- Escaping from the box 17.00 Thomas Vogel --- Learning biped robot obstacle crossing 17.30 Antunes, Moniz, Azevedo --- RB+ the dynamic estimation of the opponent's strength 18.00 SHERRY RECEPTION 18.45 DINNER WEDNESDAY 31ST MARCH 09.00 * Ian Sommerville (Lancaster) --- Prospects for AI in systems design 10.15 Oh, Azzelarabe, Sommerville, French --- Incorporating a cooperative design model in a computer aided design improvement system 10.45 TEA & COFFEE 11.15 Stuart Watt --- Fractal behaviour analysis 11.45 Valente, Breuker, Bredewg --- Integrating modeling approaches in the commonKADS library 12.15 Cawsey, Galliers, Reece, Jones --- Revising beliefs and intentions: a unified framework for agent interaction 12.45 LUNCH 14.15 * Allan Ramsay (Dublin) --- Prospects for natural language processing by machine 15.30 Lin, Fawcett, Davies --- Genedis: the discourse generator in communal 16.00 TEA & COFFEE 16.30 Miwa, Simon --- Production system modelling to represent individual differences: tradeoff between simplicity and accuracy in simulation of behaviour 17.00 Freksa, Zimmerman --- Enhancing spatial reasoning by the concept of motion 17.30 POSTER SESSION 18.45 DINNER THURSDAY 1ST APRIL 09.00 * Glyn Humphreys (Birmingham) --- Prospects for connectionism - science and engineering 10.15 Rodrigues, Lee --- Nouvelle AI and perceptual control theory 10.45 TEA & COFFEE 11.15 Vogel, Popwich, Cercone --- Logic-based inheritance reasoning 11.45 Beatriz Lopez --- Reactive planning through the integration of a case-based system and a rule-based system 12.15 James Stone --- Computer vision: what is the object? 12.45 LUNCH 14.15 SESSION ON EMOTIONS AND MOTIVATION Moffatt, Phaf, Frijda --- Analysis of a model of emotions Beaudoin, Sloman --- A computational exploration of the attention control theory of motivator processing and emotion 15.30 Bruce Katz --- Musical resolution and musical pleasure 16.00 TEA & COFFEE 16.30 Reichgelt, Shadbolt et al. --- EXPLAIN: on implementing more effective tutoring systems 17.00 POSTER SESSION 18.45 CONFERENCE DINNER FRIDAY 2ND APRIL (Morning) 09.00 * David Hogg (Leeds) --- Prospects for computer vision 10.15 Elio, Watanabe --- Simulating the interactive effects of domain knowledge and category structure within a constructive induction system 10.45 TEA & COFFEE 11.15 Dalbosco, Armando --- MRG an integrated multifunctional reasoning system 11.45 Bibby, Reichgelt --- Modelling multiple uses of the same representation in SOAR1 12.15 Sam Steel --- A connection between decision theory and program logic 12.45 Closing Session and award of Prize. 13.00 LUNCH ________________________________________________________________________ Workshop 1: Connectionism, Cognition and a New AI Organiser: Dr Noel Sharkey (Exeter) Committee: Andy Clark (Sussex) Glyn Humphreys (Birmingham) Kim Plunkett (Oxford) Chris Thornton (Sussex) Time: Monday 29th pm & Tuesday 30th March (all day) Note: This workshop overlaps with the events in the main Technical Programme on the afternoon of Tuesday 30th. ________________________________________________________________________ A number of recent developments in Connectionist Research have strong implications for the future of AI and the study of Cognition. Among the most important are developments in Learning, Representation, and Productivity (or Generalisation). The aim of the workshop will be to focus on how these developments may change the way we look at AI and the study of Cognition. Some provisional topics are: Connectionist representation, Generalisation and Transfer of Knowledge, Learning Machines and models of human development, Symbolic Learning versus Connectionist learning, Advantages of Connectionist/Symbolic hybrids, Modelling Cognitive Neuropsychology, Connectionist modelling of Creativity and music (or other arts). ENQUIRIES and SUBMISSIONS (500 word abstract) Dr. Noel Sharkey Centre for Connection Science Dept. Computer Science University of Exeter Exeter EX4 4PT Devon U.K. Email: noel@uk.ac.exeter.dcs ________________________________________________________________________ Workshop 2: Qualitative and Causal Reasoning Organiser: Dr Tony Cohn (Leeds, U.K.) Committee: Mark Lee (Aberystwth) Chris Price (Aberystwth) Chris Preist (Hewlett Packard Labs, Bristol) Time: Monday 29th March (morning and afternoon) + Tuesday 30th March (morning) ________________________________________________________________________ This workshop is intended to follow on from the series of DKBS (Deep Knowledge Based Systems) workshops which were originally initiated under the Alvey programme, and this will be the 8th in the series. The format of the one and a half day workshop will consist mainly of presentations, with ample time for discussion. It is hoped to have an invited talk in addition. The scope of the workshop includes: * Task-level reasoning (e.g., design, diagnosis, training, etc.) * Ontologies (e.g., space, time, fluids, etc.) * Explanation, causality and teleology * Mathematical formalization of QR * Management of multiple models (formalization, architecture, studies) * Model building tools * Integration with other techniques (e.g., dynamics, uncertainty, etc.) * Methodologies for selecting/classifying QR methods * Practical applications of QR, or Model Based Reasoning etc. ENQUIRIES AND SUBMISSIONS (4 copies, max 5000 words) Tony Cohn, Division of AI, School of Computer Studies, University of Leeds, LEEDS, LS2 9JT, ENGLAND. UUCP: ...!ukc!leeds!agc JANET: agc@uk.ac.leeds.scs INTERNET: agc@scs.leeds.ac.uk BITNET: agc%uk.ac.leeds.scs@UKACRL PHONE: +44 (0)532 335482 FAX: +44 (0)532 335468 ________________________________________________________________________ Workshop 3: AISB POST-GRADUATE STUDENT WORKSHOP Organiser: Dr Hyacinth Nwana University of Keele, UK. Time: Monday 29th (all day) + Tuesday 30th March (morning) ________________________________________________________________________ Many postgraduate students become academically isolated as a result of working in specialised domains within fairly small departments. This workshop is aimed at providing a forum for graduate students in AI to present and discuss their ideas with other students in related areas. In addition there will invited presentations from a number of prominent researchers in AI. A small number of group discussions is planned, including study for and completion of theses, life after a doctorate, paper refereeing and how to make use of your supervisor. All attendees are expected to present an introduction to their research in a poster session on the first day's morning. In addition a couple of attendees will be given the opportunity to present short papers. Confirmed tutors so far include: Dr John Self (Lancaster) - 'Why do supervisors supervise?' Dr Steve Easterbrook (Sussex) - 'How to write a thesis' Dr Elizabeth Churchill (Nottingham) - Title to be confirmed. Dr Peter Hancox (Birmingham) - Title to be confirmed. ENQUIRIES and SUBMISSIONS Dr. Hyacinth S. Nwana, Computer Science Dept. Keele University, Newcastle, Staffs ST5 5BG, ENGLAND. JANET: nwanahs@uk.ac.keele.cs other: nwanahs@cs.keele.ac.uk tel: +44 (0)782 583413 fax: +44 (0)782 713082 ________________________________________________________________________ Workshop 4: Motivation, Emotions and Attention Organiser: Tim Read, University of Birmingham Time: Friday 2nd April 2.30 - 5pm ________________________________________________________________________ An informal workshop will be held after lunch on Friday 2nd April enabling further discussion of issues raised in the Thursday afternoon session on motivation and emotions, and possibly additional presentations. There will be no charge, though numbers will be limited by available space. For more information contact The study of emotion encounters many difficulties, among them the looseness of emotional terminology in everyday speech. A theory of emotion should supersede this terminology, and should connect with such issues as motivation, control of attention, resource limitations architectural parallelism and underlying biological mechanisms. Computation provides useful analogies in generating an information processing account of emotion, and computer modelling is a rigorous and constructive aid in developing theories of affect. It makes sense for researchers within this field to collaborate, and the aim of the workshop is to facilitate cross-fertilisation of ideas, sharing of experience, and healthy discussion. ENQUIRIES and SUBMISSIONS Tim Read School of Computer Science, The University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, England Email T.M.Read@cs.bham.ac.uk Phone: +44-(0)21-414-4766 Fax: +44-(0)21-414-4281 ________________________________________________________________________ Tutorial 1: Collaborative Human-Computer Systems: Towards an Integrated Theory of Coordination Dr Stefan Kirn University of Muenster, Germany Time: Monday 29th March (morning) ________________________________________________________________________ Intelligent support of human experts' intellectual work is one of the most competitive edges of computer technology today. Important advances have been made in the fields of computer networking, AI (e.g., KADS, CBR, Distributed AI), integrated design frameworks (the European JESSI project), nonstandard databases (e.g., databases for teamwork support), computer supported cooperative work, and organizational theory. The time is ripe for developing integrated human computer collaborative systems to significantly enhance the problem solving capabilities of human experts. Perhaps one of the most interesting challenges here is the development of an integrated theory of human computer coordination. Such a theory will help to link humans and computers together in order to let them collaboratively work on complex "nonstandard" problems. It is the aim of the tutorial to put the loose ends of the above mentioned disciplines together thus arguing towards the development of an integrated theory of human computer coordination. Only undergraduate-level knowledge in at least one of the following fields is assumed: AI, database/information systems, organisational theory and CSCW. Dr Stefan Kirn is senior researcher and project leader at the Institute of Business and Information Systems of the Westfaelische Wilhelms-University of Muenster. He has more than 30 major publications in international journals and conferences, primarily in the areas of DAI, Cooperative Information Systems, CSCW and Computer-Aided Software Engineering. ________________________________________________________________________ Tutorial 2: The Motivation, Meaning and Use of Constraints Dr Mark Wallace European Computer-Industry Research Centre Munchen, Germany. Time: Monday 29th March (afternoon) ________________________________________________________________________ This tutorial explains how constraints contribute to clear, clean, efficient programs. We study constraints as specification tools, as formal tools, and as implementation tools. Finally we examine the use of constraints in search and optimisation problems. As the tutorial unfolds, we will explain the three different notions of constraints: constraints as built-in relations, with built-in solvers; constraints as active agents, communicating with a store; and propagation constraints. We will also explain how these notions are related, and moreover how the different types of constraints can all be combined in a single program. For programming examples, the logic programming framework will be used. It will be aimed at postgraduates, researchers and teachers of AI, who would like to know what constraints are, and what they are for. Also anyone interested in declarative programming, seeking a solution to the problem of efficiency, will benefit from the tutorial. An understanding of formal logic will be assumed, and some familiarity with logic programming will be necessary to appreciate the programming examples. Dr Mark Wallace leads the Constraints Reasoning Team at ECRC (the European Computer-Industry Research Centre), Munich. He introduced "Negation by Constraints" at SLP'87. He has recently presented papers at IJCAI'92, FGCS'92 and JFPL'92. Recent tutorial presentations include a short course on Deductive and Object-Oriented Knowledge Bases at the Technical University of Munich, and "Constraint Logic Programming - An Informal Introduction", written with the CORE team at ECRC for the Logic Programming Summer School, '92. ________________________________________________________________________ Tutorial 3: A Little Turing and Goedel for Specialists in AI Prof. Alexis Manaster Ramer Wayne State University, USA. Time: Monday 29th March (morning + afternoon) ________________________________________________________________________ Currently debated issues in the foundations of AI go directly back to technical work of people like Turing and Godel on the power and limits of formal systems and computing devices. Yet neither the relevant results nor the intellectual climate in which they arose are widely discussed in the AI community (for example, how many know that Godel himself believed that the human mind was not subject to the limits set by his theorems on formal systems?). The purpose of this tutorial is to develop a clear picture of the fundamental results and their implications as seen at the time they were obtained and at the present time. We will primarily refer to the work of Godel, Turing, Chomsky, Hinttika, Langendoen and Postal, Searle, and Penrose. Some background knowledge is assumed: some programming, some AI and some discrete mathematics. Dr Alexis Manaster Ramer is professor of Computer Science at Wayne State University. He has over 100 publications and presentations in linguistics, computational linguistics, and foundations of CS and AI. A few years ago, he taught a short course on the theory of computation for the Natural Language Processing group at the IBM T.J.Watson Research Center (Hawthorne, NY, USA) and this past summer taught a one-week advanced course on mathematics of language at the European Summer School in Logic, Language, and Information (Colchester, UK). ________________________________________________________________________ OTHER MEETINGS ________________________________________________________________________ LAGB CONFERENCE. Shortly before AISB'93, the Linguistics Association of Great Britain (LAGB) will hold its Spring Meeting at the University of Birmingham from 22-24th March, 1993. For more information, contact Dr. William Edmondson: postal address as below; phone +44-(0)21-414-4773; email EDMONDSONWH@vax1.bham.ac.uk JCI CONFERENCE The Joint Council Initiative in Cognitive Science and Human Computer Interaction will hold its Annual Meeting on Monday 29th March 1993 in the same buildings as AISB'93 (in parallel with the AISB'93 workshops and tutorials). The theme will be "Understanding and Supporting Acquisition of Cognitive Skills". For more information, contact Elizabeth Pollitzer, Department of Computing, Imperial College, 180, Queens Gate, London SW7 2BZ, U.K.; phone +44-(0)71-581-8024; email eep@doc.ic.ac.uk. ________________________________________________________________________ REGISTRATION NOTES Main Programme, Workshops and Tutorials ________________________________________________________________________ ADDRESS (for registrations and general enquiries) AISB'93, School of Computer Science, The University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, U.K. Email: aisb93-prog@cs.bham.ac.uk Phone: +44-(0)21-414-3711 Fax: +44-(0)21-414-4281 PAYMENT Payment should be made by cheque or money order payable to `The University of Birmingham', drawn in pounds sterling on a UK clearing bank. Payment should be sent together with the Registration Form to the above address. It is not possible to register by email. WORKSHOPS Please note that before registering for a workshop you should contact its organiser directly concerning availability and submissions. CONFIRMATION Confirmation of booking, a receipt, and a map with travel details will be sent on receipt of this application form. LATE REGISTRATIONS Registrations postmarked after 10th March count as late registrations. CANCELLATIONS In the event of cancellation, an 75% refund of the total cost will be made provided that written notice is received by the Local Organiser by 10th March 1993. After that date refunds cannot be made, although substitutions are possible. AISB MEMBERSHIP Delegates wishing to join AISB (thus avoiding the non-AISB-member supplement) should contact: AISB Administration, Cognitive and Computing Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH, U.K.; phone: +44-(0)273 678379; fax: +44-(0)273 678188; email: aisb@cogs.susx.ac.uk DISCLAIMER The University and the Conference Organisers accept no responsibility for injury to persons attending the Conference, nor for loss of or damage to their property. The Conference Organisers reserve the right to change the details given in this document without notice. ______________________________________________________________________ R E G I S T R A T I O N F O R M ---- A I S B' 9 3 ______________________________________________________________________ Figures in parentheses are for full-time students (send photo copy of ID). ACCOMMODATION and FOOD 28th 29th 30th 31st 1st sub-totals lunch 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 ______ dinner 7.50 7.50 7.50 20.00 ______ bed & 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 23.00 ______ breakfast total ______ vegetarians please tick _____ TECHNICAL PROGRAMME, WORKSHOPS and TUTORIALS technical programme 175 (40) _____ non-AISB members add 30 _____ late registration add 35 _____ Nwana workshop 50 _____ Sharkey workshop 60 (30) _____ Cohn workshop 60 (30) _____ Read workshop 0 _____ Manaster Ramer tutorial 110 (55) _____ Wallace tutorial 75 (30) _____ Kirn tutorial 75 (30) _____ total _____ Pounds PERSONAL DETAILS Full time Name ___________________________________________ student? Y/N Address ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ ___________________________________________ Phone _________________________ Fax ___________ Email ___________________________________________ I wish to register for the events indicated, and enclose a cheque in pounds sterling, drawn on a U.K. clearing bank and payable to the `University of Birmingham' for ..... Signed _________________________ Date ___________ ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 26 Jan 93 08:56:47 -0800 From: news@cs.washington.edu (USENET News System) Return-Path: To: comp-simulation@cs.washington.edu Content-Length: 5407 X-Lines: 165 Newsgroups: comp.simulation Path: gaetano From: gaetano@cs.washington.edu (Gaetano Borriello) Subject: Int'l Conference on CAD, ICCAD93 (CFP: papers due 4/12/93) Sender: news@beaver.cs.washington.edu (USENET News System) Organization: Computer Science & Engineering, U. of Washington, Seattle Date: Tue, 26 Jan 93 16:56:35 GMT IEEE/ACM International Conference on CAD-93 November 7-11, 1993 Santa Clara, CA **** CALL FOR PAPERS **** The 1993 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTER-AIDED DESIGN will be held November 7-11, 1993. ICCAD is oriented towards Electrical Engineering CAD professionals, concentrating on CAD for Electronic Circuit Design. It is sponsored by the IEEE Circuits and Systems Society, the IEEE Computer Society/DATC, and the Association for Computing Machinery/SIGDA. ** AREAS OF INTEREST ** Original technical papers on (but not limited to) the following topics are invited: 1) COMBINATIONAL LOGIC SYNTHESIS: Two-level and multi-level logic optimization (area, timing, power), FPGA optimization, BDD techniques, don't care methods, technology mapping 2) SEQUENTIAL LOGIC SYNTHESIS: Finite state machine-synthesis, FSM decomposition, sequential optimization (e.g., retiming), asynchronous design, formal verification 3) HIGH-LEVEL SYNTHESIS, VERIFICATION: Pipeline, memory system and DSP synthesis; scheduling, allocation, synthesis systems, high-level synthesis for test, binding 4) TIMING MODELING, ANALYSIS AND OPTIMIZATION: Delay modeling, timing estimation including path sensitization and false path analysis, clocking optimization, area-power-delay trade-off scenarios 5) ANALOG MODELING, SIMULATION AND SYNTHESIS: All aspects of circuit simulation, modeling issues for simulation, analog synthesis 6) PROCESS AND DEVICE MODELING AND SIMULATION: New device models, process simulation, yield analysis manufacturability 7) DISCRETE SIMULATION: Switch, logic and high-level modeling and simulation 8) ROUTING AND LAYOUT VERIFICATION: Routing for IC, PCB and multichip substrates, DRC, ERC, circuit extraction/verification, symbolic design and compaction 9) PLACEMENT AND FLOORPLANNING: Placement, floorplanning, partitioning, area estimation, module generation, layout systems, cell layout, MCM physical design issues, performance driven layout 10) BIST and DFT: Hardware techniques to improve testability, analysis of BIST/DFT schemes, partial and boundary scan 11) ATPG and GENERAL TEST: ATPG, delay fault testing, general test issues, fault simulation 12) FRAMEWORKS AND CAD SYSTEMS: Tool integration, design representation, user interfaces, databases, design languages, case, design management, total CAD systems 13) ISSUES IN SYSTEM DESIGN: Hardware/software co-design, system partitioning, design for manufacturability, CAD tools for advanced systems, CAD tools for concurrent engineering, tools for advanced systems ** AUTHOR INFORMATION AND FORMAT ** Authors should submit: * 1 cover page including: - Title of paper. - The category 1-13 that most closely matches the paper's content. - Complete name, return address, telephone number, fax number and affiliation of each author. - Clear identification of the corresponding author. - Papers will be reviewed anonymously. ONLY the cover page should identify the authors and their affiliations. * 10 copies of one page abstract - Abstract, typed on separate page should state clearly and precisely what is new and point out the significant results. The IMPACT, or potential impact, of the contribution will play a major role in evaluation. * 10 copies of the completed paper not to exceed 20 pages, double- spaced, figures, tables and references included. - Papers exceeding 20 pages or previously published will be returned to the authors. THIS INCLUDES WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS. For further information send a one-line email message to: icpubpap@dac.com - Authors should objectively address the significance of their contribution as demonstrated through theoretical advances, algorithmic/heuristic advantages tested on "real" examples, and objective comparisons to existing techniques. *** SEND TO: ICCAD-93 Publication Department MP Associates, Inc. 7490 Clubhouse Rd., Suite 102 Boulder, CO 80301 telephone: 303/530-4562 Proposals for Panel Sessions and Tutorials are invited. Please send complete proposals including the participants to the Program Chairperson. ** AUTHOR'S SCHEDULE ** Deadline for submissions: Postmarked April 2, 1993 Notification of acceptance: July 5, 1993 Deadline for final version: August 9, 1993 GENERAL CHAIRPERSON: Michael Lightner University of Colorado CB 425 Dept. of E & C Engineering Boulder, CO 80309 303/492-5180 fax: 303/492-2758 email: lightner@boulder.colorado.edu PROGRAM CHAIRPERSON: Jochen Jess Eindhoven Univ. of Tech. Den Dolech 2 Postbus 513 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands +31-40-473353 fax: +31-40-464527 email: jess@es.ele.tue.nl PUBLICATIONS CHAIRPERSON: Richard Rudell Synopsys, Inc. 700 E. Middlefield Rd. Mountain View, CA 94043 415/962-5000 fax: 415/965-8637 email: rudell@beeblebrox.synopsys.com ------------------------------ via Fnet-EUnet id AA06123; Thu, 28 Jan 1993 10:29:40 +0100 (MET) via Fnet-EUnet id AA04015; Thu, 28 Jan 1993 10:29:36 +0100 (MET) Return-Receipt-To: news@laas.laas.fr To: comp-simulation@corton.inria.fr Path: laas!marlene!vasques From: vasques@marlene.laas.fr (Francisco Vasques) Newsgroups: comp.org.acm,comp.org.ieee,comp.parallel,comp.realtime,comp.simulation,comp.theory,comp.theory.cell-automata,comp.theory.dynamic-sys,fnet.c3,fnet.seminaires Subject: Call for papers PNPM 93 Date: 28 Jan 93 09:24:25 GMT Sender: news@laas.laas.fr Followup-To: comp.org.acm Organization: LAAS-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Toulouse, France Nntp-Posting-Host: marlene Originator: vasques@marlene Content-Length: 5265 X-Lines: 171 ==================================================================== PNPM93 Call for Papers Fifth International Workshop on Petri Nets and Performance Models Toulouse, France Tutorial Day: 19 October 1993 Conference: 20-22 October 1993 ==================================================================== Co-operation requested with: Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) IEEE Computer Society Association Francaise des Sciences et Technologies d'Information et des Systemes (AFCET) General Co-Chairmen Alain COSTES LAAS-CNRS, INP, Toulouse Michel DIAZ LAAS-CNRS, Toulouse Georges FARRE CCIT, Toulouse International Programme Committee Co-Chairmen Guy JUANOLE LAAS-CNRS, UPS, Toulouse Stephane NATKIN CEDRIC-CNAM, Paris International Programme Committee M. AJMONE MARSAN (Italy) S. KUMAGAI (Japan) H. AMMAR (USA) J. MAGOTT (Poland) F. BACCELLI (France) R. MARIE (France) G. BALBO (Italy) M. MOLLOY (USA) H. BEILNER (Germany) T. MURATA (USA) J. BILLINGTON (Australia) L. OJALA (Finland) G. CIARDO (USA) K. ONAGA (Japan) G. CHIOLA (Italy) W.A. SANDERS (USA) G. CONTE (Italy) M. SILVA (Spain) R. DAVID (France) D. SIMPSON (UK) G. FLORIN (France) K. TRIVEDI (USA) S. HADDAD (France) R. VALETTE (France) B. HENDERSON (Australy) M. VERNON (USA) K. JENSEN (Denmark) M. WOODSIDE (Canada) G. KLAS (Germany) W. ZUBERECK (Canada) Advisory Committee M. AJMONE MARSAN (Italy) M. MOLLOY (USA) (Chairman) J. BILLINGTON (Australia) T. MURATA (USA) G. FLORIN (France) K. ONAGA (Japan) Organising Committee A. DREUIL, CCIT, Toulouse M. T. IPPOLITO, LAAS-CNRS, Toulouse ==================================================================== Scope of Workshop The workshop provides a forum for the presentation of original contributions in the area of models based on Petri-Nets and including time specifications and tools for performance evaluation and systems design. During the workshop, facilities will be provided for the exhibition of computer-aided Petri net tools. The day before the workshop, Tuesday 19 October, a day of tutorials will be presented. The language of the workshop is English. Topics -New developments in timed and stochastic Petri nets, including high- level stochastic nets -Analysis methods for timed and stochastic nets -Advances in incorporating time into nets, while retaining the results of the General Net theory -Relationships with other formal systems where timed extensions are being developed ( process algebras, formal description techniques...) -Application of nets to the design and performance evaluation of systems including computing, communications and time constraints: multimedia, office automation, flexible manufacturing systems, communications networks, real time systems, operations research... -Computer aids for the analysis of Petri net models. -Educational issues, including the role of Petri nets in teaching concurrency ==================================================================== Information for Authors Submissions Authors are invited to submit five copies of a full paper (in English and no longer than 20 A4 pages) to Guy JUANOLE by 1 March 1993. The name and address of the author(s), and a short abstract are to be included on a separate title page. Descriptions of work in progress, particularly related to industrial applications (2 to 4 pages), and indications of interest in exhibiting a tool (1 page description) are also invited. Address for Correspondence Guy JUANOLE, LAAS-CNRS 7, Avenue du Colonel Roche 31077 Toulouse CEDEX FRANCE Tel: +33 61 33 62 58 Fax: +33 61 33 64 11 Email: juanole@laas.fr Important Dates 1 March 1993 Submission Deadline 15 May 1993 Notification of decision 20 July 1993 Final version due Proceedings Accepted papers will be published in the proceedings by the IEEE Computer Society ==================================================================== REPLY FORM PNPM93, Toulouse, FRANCE Please complete and return by email, fax or post to: Guy JUANOLE, LAAS-CNRS 7, Avenue du Colonel Roche 31077 Toulouse CEDEX FRANCE Tel: +33 61 33 62 58 Fax: +33 61 33 64 11 Email: juanole@laas.fr Name:______________________________________ Title:___________________ Address:_____________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________ Postcode:___________________ Tel:__________________ Fax:__________________ Email:_________________ O I intend to attend PNPM93 O I wish to attend the Tutorial Day O I shall submit a paper Title:_______________________________________________________ Co-authors:__________________________________________________ O I intend to exhibit a tool Name of tool:____________________ Machine:___________________ Operating System:__________________ Memory required:_________ O Please send me the next circular ------------------------------ with BSMTP id 3862; Thu, 28 Jan 93 16:26:34 AST Date: Thu, 28 Jan 93 16:26:12 AST To: theorynet@ibm.com, ai-ed@sun.com, ailist@kl.sri.com, anneal@cs.ucla.edu, arpanet-bboards@mc.lcs.mit.edu, biomch-l@hearn, biotech@umdc.umd.edu, cellural-automata@think.com, connectionists@MAILBOX.SRV.CS.CMU.EDU, crtnet@psuvm, cybsys-l@bingvmb, dasp-l@csearn, denny@tss.com, dynsys-l@uncvm1, human-nets@aramis.rutgers.edu, hypercube@hubcap.clemson.edu, ieee-l@bingvmb.cc.binghamton.edu, image-l@trearn, info-futures@encore.com, ir-l%uccvma.bitnet@vm1.nodak.edu, issnnet-mlist@park.bu.edu, lantra-l@finhutc, na@sccm.Stanford.EDU, neuron@hplabs.hpl.hp.com, nl-kr@cs.rochester.edu, optics-l@taunivm, para-dap@irlearn, psyc@pucc, psycgrad@acadvm1.uottawa.ca, simulation@ufl.edu, soft-eng@mwunix.mitre.org, vision-list@ads.com Subject: Call for papers: AI Symposium Cc: pochec@unb.ca, goldfarb@unb.ca, bgn@unb.ca, bspencer@unb.ca From: POCHEC%unb.ca@unbmvs1.csd.unb.ca Content-Length: 5078 X-Lines: 217 ================================================================== ================================================================== Call for Participation The 5th UNB AI Symposium ********************************* * * * Theme: * * ARE WE MOVING AHEAD? * * * ********************************* August 11-14, 1993 Sheraton Inn Fredericton Advisory Committee ================== N. Ahuja, Univ.of Illinois, Urbana W. Bibel, ITH, Darmstadt D. Bobrow, Xerox PARC M. Fischler, SRI P. Gdrdenfors, Lund Univ. S. Grossberg, Boston Univ. J. Haton, CRIN T. Kanade, CMU R. Michalski, George Mason Univ. T. Poggio, MIT Z. Pylyshyn, Univ. of Western Ontario O. Selfridge, GTE Labs Y. Shirai, Osaka Univ. Program Committee ================= The international program committee will consist of approximately 40 members from all main fields of AI and from Cognitive Science. We invite researchers from the various areas of Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Science and Pattern Recognition, including Vision, Learning, Knowledge Representation and Foundations, to submit articles which assess or review the progress made so far in their respective areas, as well as the relevance of that progress to the whole enterprise of AI. Other papers which do not address the theme are also invited. Feature ======= Four 70 minute invited talks and five panel discussions are devoted to the chosen topic: "Are we moving ahead: Lessons from Computer Vision." The speakers include (in alphabetical order) * Lev Goldfarb * Stephen Grossberg * Robert Haralick * Tomaso Poggio Such a concentrated analysis of the area will be undertaken for the first time. We feel that the "Lessons from Computer r Vision" are of relevance to the entire AI community. Information for Authors ======================= Now: Fill out the form below and email it. --- March 30, 1993: -------------- Four copies of an extended abstract (maximum of 4 pages including references) should be sent to the conference chair. May 15, 1993: ------------- Notification of acceptance will be mailed. July 1, 1993: ------------- Camera-ready copy of paper is due. Conference Chair: Lev Goldfarb Email: goldfarb@unb.ca Mailing address: Faculty of Computer Science University of New Brunswick P. O. Box 4400 Fredericton, New Brunswick Canada E3B 5A3 Phone: (506) 453-4566 FAX: (506) 453-3566 Symposium location The symposium will be held in the Sheraton Inn, Fredericton , which which overlooks the beautiful Saint John River. IMMEDIATE REPLY FORM ==================== (please email to goldfarb@unb.ca) I would like to submit a paper. Title: _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ I would like to organize a session. Title: _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ Name: _____________________________________ _____________________________________ Department _____________________________________ University/Company _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ Address _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ Prov/State _____________________________________ Country _____________________________________ Telephone _____________________________________ Email _____________________________________ Fax _____________________________________ ------------------------------ Subject: [DEPARTMENTS] ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 24 Jan 93 01:39:51 GMT From: mcleod@Sdsc.Edu Subject: E-S3, Vol 1, No. 12, December 1992 The following sample issue of our electronic magazine, "E-S3", covering selected topics about computer modeling and simulation, is sent to you with the compliments of the publisher of the technical journal SIMULATION, the Society for Computer Simulation, and John and Suzette McLeod, the Editors of Simulation in the Service of Society (S3), a special section of that journal. If you do not care to receive future issues please type REPLY -- cancel. Let's not clutter up our E-mail with "Junk Mail"! __________________________________________________________________ E-S3 Vol. 1, No. 12 based on the december 1992 issue of "Simulation in the Service of Society" John McLeod, Technical Editor Suzette McLeod, Managing Editor 8484 La Jolla Shores Dr., La Jolla, CA 92037. E-mail: mcleod@sdsc.bitnet * S3 is a special section of SIMULATION the monthly journal of the SOCIETY for COMPUTER SIMULATION P.O.Box 17900, San Diego, CA 92177-7900 Phone: (619) 277-3888 FAX: (619) 277-3930 * [Copyright Notice: E-S3 is the electronically delivered version of "Simulation in the Service of Society" which is a special section of SIMULATION, a monthly technical journal of the Society for Computer Simulation International. It may be reproduced only for personal use or for the use of students. In any case full credit must be given to the original source of publication: SIMULATION 59:6, December 1992. All rights reserved, (c) 1992, Simulation Councils, Inc.] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Remarks on Rio Peter D. de Janosi, Director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria, wrote in the June 1992 issue of OPTIONS that the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro "has not brought a quick agreement on what is to be done. This comes as no surprise to those of us who were skeptical that such a huge and highly politicized gathering could accomplish its ambitions. If the organizers are to be faulted for anything, it is for creating unrealistic expectations. "But Rio cannot and must not be written off as a failure. Its accomplishments go well beyond the modest financial pledges by some national leaders. UNCED forced politicians, scientists, business leaders, governmental and nongovernmental organizations -- in short, almost everyone concerned with long-term policy -- to take stock. It forced us to think about our goals, about what might and might not be possible, about what we know and don't know about our societies and our planet. Out of this has come a clear acceptance that environment and development are interrelated and cannot be considered separately; this a seminal change in thinking. Rio also reaffirmed that sustainable development has become a universal goal, even if we disagree on how to achieve it. "The meeting's outcome, however, suggests that the time is not ripe for meaningful general global agreements; interests and priorities are simply too divergent. A more promising approach at this stage may be to concentrate on smaller and more clearly defined problems, without losing sight of the larger conjunction of environment and development. Rio also shows that ill-defined threats and fears will not get us far. Unless and until the scientific community organizes itself to produce clear, unbiased, and persuasive knowledge, to illuminate adequately complex problems, the spectacle of Rio will be repeated. This too, is a useful lesson. No single institution alone can address the myriad problems covered by the concepts of global change and sustainable development, but we at IIASA will continue to do our part. We will also participate actively in efforts to set up networks of organizations studying various aspects of global change. We must take advantage of each other's strengths and work towards consensus. The stakes are high, and the problems are pressing." Fragmented Science and World Models Here we present excerpts -- fragments taken here and there --from an article in the same issue of OPTIONS entitled "Science Fragmented" by Nathan Keyfitz. * * We have today inexpensive fax, conference calls, worldwide television by satellite, even videophone, and if meeting is required, an international air network. How can anyone say that only communication is lacking when such an awesome amount of communication is actually going on? Oran Young [Director, Institute of Arctic Studies, Dartmouth College] tells us how much has to happen beyond the technology of communication in order that countries can arrive at any understanding of their common interest and then act on it. That all those marvelous instruments of communication prove so feeble when it comes to enabling people to see their common interest -- on environmental and other matters -- contributes to disillusionment with technology. * One cannot become more effective without having others come to depend on one more, and so having to face more claims and higher expectations. That seems at least to be true of scientists and the institutions of science as they have evolved in this century. We see on every hand that uncertainty is central to deliberations on the environment. Small-scale science can minimize uncertainty by isolating materials in a laboratory, by avoiding contamination by extraneous bacteria, or by using standardized animals. The troubles with ecological and environmental problems start with the impossibility of isolating a few variables so that knowledge can be gained step by step. Both in the natural science of ecology and in the social science at the interface between it and the economy, thousands of variables interact in unknown and complex ways. Most of the uncertainties that are intrinsic to the real problems of the environment are disregarded in the models commonly cited. The ten that are conveniently listed by Michael Chadwick [Director, Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden] either avoid the question altogether, or vary their parameters in much too short a range. Uncertainties in linear models of statistics and econometrics are far less formidable than those that arise from feedbacks. And once multiple feedbacks come into the analysis, errors rise dramatically. Consider two of the positive feedbacks involved in climate change: more atmospheric carbon dioxide increases warming, and as the oceans warm they are less able to absorb carbon dioxide, so warming is further increased; warming of northern regions would thaw tundra that holds large quantities of methane, and the release of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, would lead to further warming. There are also negative feedbacks. It is not a question of deciding between one positive and one negative feedback which is the stronger, but of deciding the net balance among many. Evidently the straightforward thinking about uncertainty that serves for statistics and econometrics carries one but a very short distance in dealing with climate. And in addition to the uncertainties engendered by feedbacks, as in the case of climate change, is the complication of causal analysis when A influences B and B influences A. The outcome is to confuse and disillusion a public that looks to science for straightforward, coherent answers. Chadwick provides a convenient survey of ten ecological computer models of which much was heard in their time, the earliest (Forrester's) published in 1971, the most recent (Svedin and Aniansson's) in 1987. Nine of the ten appeared during the 1970s, when this style of analysis reached its peak of popularity. Is Chadwick offering us an autopsy of a method that is now obsolete, or an incitement to more work along lines that a few pathbreakers have pioneered? Since his survey of the ten models is the introduction to a new model, POLESTAR, on which he is now working, we can take it that Chadwick considers large-scale modeling worthwhile, provided one learns from earlier efforts. That the models bring wholly new knowledge into the world one can doubt. Is it possible to imagine an investigator starting his model construction with the firm belief in unlimited economic growth, and then concluding from the numbers appearing on his computer screen that such growth is impossible? I venture to say that none of the authors reversed his or her perspective as a result of the modeling effort. I call such calculations not proofs but persuasive illustrations. They show possible outcomes of present tendencies. And they have indeed convinced millions that environment is important. That is no small contribution. Forecasting is Too Difficult for Existing Models The hazard arising from hidden underlying structural changes is greater the longer the span of time that the models cover. Econometric models have the modest aim of saying what will happen over the new few months or at most few years. Ecological models are far more ambitious; they profess to tell what will happen over the course of decades. On the one hand, the long term is more important to humanity than the next few months; on the other hand, there are fields in which the long term is simply opaque. While Lawrence Klein [University of Pennsylvania] is more than aware of the difficulties of long- term forecasting, he makes a genuine contribution in showing how demographic and ecological variables can be fitted into econometric models. Herbert Simon was one of the inventors of systems analysis, and in a lecture delivered at the third IIASA Conference in 1988, he tells just what it can do best. Prediction, he argues, is rarely satisfactory. Constructing convincing scenarios can be more useful, but in the end he puts the emphasis on something quite different: estimating the ultimate condition a present configuration is pointing toward. The basic question is whether it is moving toward stability, and what the ultimate stable condition will be like. Nor does he promote models that contain hundreds of variables, whose merit for some practitioners seems to be that they utilize the capacity of the largest computers, but understandable models, perhaps with as few as three or four variables. In fact it is the policy levers by which societies can be managed that are the interest of all such models. None of the models listed by Chadwick shows that things can continue as they are, but they differ greatly in the kind of policy recommended to permit continuance. Thus Forrester and the Meadows would simply impose limits on population and on its various ways of exploiting the environment, without giving much detail on how people would be constrained to stay within these limits. Mesarovic and Pestel and the Bariloche group find that more foreign aid, and new forms of foreign aid, are the key. The UN model puts the emphasis on technical change. The models can be good on testing policy proposals even though unable to predict the future. A model could tell what the effect of a carbon tax might be, and the range of such effects under sufficiently varied scenarios. As this was being written a major environmental conference, the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, was coming to a close. Fully 140 states were represented and one of the targets of the organizers was a treaty agreeing on measures to bring carbon dioxide emissions down to the level of 1990. They did agree on a treaty, but it was far short of the one that most had hoped for. Many called this partial success a failure, and blamed it on the United States. Such problems typically arise in what Young calls the Anarchical Society of sovereign states -- or rather, the governments of sovereign states. Is a supra-national government the answer? Young says no, and the reason seems straightforward: national governments will hardly appoint an international agent who would commit them to something that they would not agree to themselves. And all fear the addition of a new layer of bureaucracy. Suppose, says Young, that countries commit themselves not to a rigid organization but to a certain way of settling such matters. Young proposes doing it by institutions, which is to say sets of rules that acquire legitimacy, rules that seem "right" whether or not they are written down. "No interference by outsiders in the internal affairs of sovereign states" is an example of an institution rapidly disseminated after World War II. It has its roots in the triumph of state over church some centuries back, but most would agree that we now need more than this. Recent events show that sovereignty needs modification to deal with civil wars, the nuclear menace, and environmental threats. When we stop hoping for big things from international organizations and start building institutions, we find before us a huge educational task. Young would start the task of creating institutions, i.e., new ways of thinking, with an International Environmental Governance Network which would serve as a flexible instrument for drawing together practitioners and scholars. Exchanges in the network would extract lessons pertaining to governance, and apply them to contemporary environmental problems in international society. That would develop the intellectual capital needed to meet present challenges creatively. The network would be a facility for passing around information. storing data, stimulating research, providing advisory services, conducting training. Democracy has taken some big jumps forward in the last year in many countries, and environmental protection is going to depend more and more on knowledgeable publics putting pressure on their politicians. Conferences and Agreements International conferences can be seen as one phase of the educational process that is the essence of Young's networking. As John Montgomery wrote in Harvard Magazine, "The Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment in 1972, the Vienna conference in 1977. and the UN Environmental Conference in Montreal in 1987, all . . . have made an unmistakable impact on the perceptions of politicians and publics." The whole is as much an education in environmental and political matters as it is the attainment of an immediate, legally enforceable result. Even if most countries do only a little more in protecting endangered species or restricting the dumping of chemical wastes than they would have done anyhow, an international conference will have been worth its cost. The effectiveness of conferences from this point of view is likely to be greater if it aims at marginal and gradual environmental improvements that have a chance of being, (a) voted at the conference; (b) ratified by governments; (c) implemented in national laws; and (d) complied with and enforced. The conference is one link of a long and fragile chain. It is consoling to reflect that it has an effect even if no treaty is signed, or if signed, is not implemented. The reader will be struck with the wide contrasts among contributions to IIASA '92. The most striking to this reader is that arising from the degree of confidence in what science can accomplish. For Gurji Marchuk, who comes to policy questions from a background in hard science, there are indeed many problems that in effect arise from technology -- and particularly environmental problems -- but these arise out of incomplete science. Allow science to continue in its course, says Marchuk, and those difficulties that we see today will be almost automatically overcome. For Sheila Jasanoff [Chairman, Department of Science and Technology Studies, Cornell University] the answer is not so automatic. For her science has lost its perfection. It does not automatically seek the truth, any more than does the law, or literature, or art, or politics, but like them is subject to the interests of practitioners, and is played on by constantly changing public sentiment. If anyone among our contemporaries is Mr. Science Policy, it is Harvey Brooks [Harvard University]. He points out in his IIASA '92 paper that human capacity for adaptation has grown at an unprecedented speed, especially in respect to the power of science and technology, and never faster than today. "The population of scientists and engineers and other professionals continues to grow at two to three times the rate of the population as a whole or even of the total world labor force. This is even, perhaps especially, true in most of the large developing countries. But science and technology are not only the principal instruments of human adaptation to a changing environment; they are also one of the principal causes of that environmental change, either through the direct effects of their applications, or through their indirect effects in enabling much more rapid population growth and more rapid and extensive systemic interactions through communications and transportation." We should not be surprised by all this; we were bound sooner or later to get over the misty-eyed reverence of the Enlightenment in which science took over the certainty and beneficence formerly attributed to religion. Yet when all is said, there is one difference between scientific knowledge and other kinds. Science and the technology to which it gives rise have enormous power over the physical world. Most of their power is exerted in a direction that is positive for the Earth and its inhabitants. We may be disillusioned, but few are prepared to forgo the benefits of science. And as corresponds to our ungrateful age, we can forecast for the future more criticism of science, along with acceptance of more and more benefits in both pure and applied knowledge derived from it. GENI Dear John: I am very interested in computer simulation of Buckminster Fuller's Energy Grid project. The last two months have propelled our work around the world. >From our exhibit in Rio, we spoke to official delegates, over a thousand NGOs, and media from around the world. Last month's issue of IEEE/PES Power Engineering Review featured "Tapping Remote Renewables with High-Voltage Interconnections" -- a panel session we helped coordinate during their winter meeting in New York. Twenty years ago, Buckminster Fuller proposed the interconnection of regional power grids into a single, continuous global electric network. While the global vision may be years away, the linking of large, remote renewable resources using high-voltage direct current transmission has been confirmed as feasible and desirable today. Power grids exist primarily in the developed world, while much of the world's renewable potential exists in developing countries. Transmission efficiencies have improved dramatically over the past two decades, transcending political borders and thinking. (Limits are now up to 4000 miles for HVDC with 20% losses.) This would allow for hydro, geothermal and solar in Latin America to displace the polluting generation in North America. The same goes for Africa to Europe. Dr. Fuller stated the Energy Grid to be the number one priority for the planet -- providing the fundamental infrastructure in an environmentally sound manner. Currently, every time we flip any switch we are causing some kind of pollution 80% of the time. Africans need another heating and cooking option over wood -- used 80% of the time, thus causing deforestation, topsoil erosion and desertification. The global simulation of renewable resources linked to population and industrial demand centers should make long-range planners take note of a solution that was previously too often ignored. Peter Meisen, Director GENI Global Energy Network International PO Box 81565 San Diego, CA 92138 Psychological Simulation In the Newsletter of the International Federation for Systems Research we note the following description of the Best Paper given at their Symposium on Humanity, Architecture and Conceptualization. On the Simulation of Depth Psychological Processes P.R. Medina-Martins, J.M. Vera, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisbon, Portugal Despite the great importance it has for humanity, science and cybernetics, the world of human (ir)rationality has been, so far, a practically unexplored kingdom in terms of modeling and computer simulation. This paper examines some of the reasons for this situation and proposes theoretical and concrete implementing techniques to overcome it. Not only words expressing emotions but also their time-variable relationships (beliefs included) can be subjected to formal treatment. In order to materialize this theoretical approach, J. Vera is developing a real, interactive, parallel processing system (BABY I) in which, among other things, "feelings" can be effectively simulated. ------------------------------ END OF SIMULATION DIGEST ************************